Anagomezgarcia’s Weblog

This is a blog for my students at the Official Language School in Valencia

Bernie Sanders is not out yet June 4, 2016

Filed under: Uncategorized — anagomezgarcia @ 9:18 pm
An article by John Cassidy (NewYorker@newsletter.newyorker.com)

We’ve reached a somewhat strange point in the 2016 Presidential campaign. Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump are already going at it hammer and tongs, while Bernie Sanders and his supporters are pointing out that there’s still some unfinished primary business to attend to—like the six Democratic contests this coming Tuesday. Voters will be going to the polls in California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, and South Dakota. About nine hundred delegates are up for grabs.

Mathematically, Clinton seems well-nigh certain to secure the nomination. She leads Sanders by about two hundred and seventy pledged delegates, plus another four hundred or so superdelegates. Even if Sanders were to carry California, where nearly five hundred delegates are at stake, he wouldn’t be able to close the gap. The contest there, as in all the other states that will vote on Tuesday, isn’t a winner-take-all affair, meaning the delegates will be divided in proportion to the votes. Still, the outcome of the California primary is important. If Clinton wins, Sanders will come under pressure to fold his tent and endorse her. If Sanders wins, he may be encouraged to keep going all the way to the Convention in Philadelphia next month, which would greatly complicate Clinton’s efforts to unite the Party.

California’s Democratic Presidential Primary Tightening (PDF) — Field Research Corporation

Clinton has long been leading in the California polls, but recent surveys show the race to be narrowing. On Thursday, the widely respected Field Poll showed her leading Sanders by just two points, forty-five per cent to forty-three per cent, among likely voters: statistically, that’s a tie. The primary is a semi-open one, which means that both registered Democrats and independents—known in California as “nonpartisans”—can vote in it. “While Clinton leads by nine points among registered Democrats, Sanders is preferred two to one among non-partisans,” a release accompanying the Field Poll said. “Regionally, Clinton receives her strongest support among voters in Los Angeles County and in the inland regions of the Central Valley and Sierra mountains. On the other hand, Sanders does best among voters in the San Francisco Bay Area or those living along the North or Central coasts.”


Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton in a Tight Race in California — Los Angeles Times

The Los Angeles Times published its own poll on Thursday, which also showed a close race, and indicated that turnout will probably determine the result. Many of Clinton’s supporters are older people, who tend to turn out pretty reliably. Sanders is stronger among young people, independents, and other groups that traditionally show a lower propensity to appear at polling stations. If Sanders can get all, or nearly all, of his supporters to vote, he could pull off a surprise victory. But that won’t necessarily be easy. The director of the Times poll, Dan Schnur, a political scientist at the University of Southern California, said, “This may be the biggest voter mobilization challenge California has seen in many, many years.”


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